Forecast of below average rainfall due to El Nino, hopes of relief from inflation may get a blow!

Inflation In India: Due to the increase in temperature in February and unseasonal rains in March-April, the Rabi crop has been damaged and now the challenges are increasing for the coming Kharif season. Skymet has predicted that the monsoon between June and September this year may be below normal. Skymet has said in its weather report that this year the monsoon is estimated to be 94 per cent of the average. In its forecast, Skymet said that northern and central India may receive less rainfall this year. It is expected to rain especially in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra during July and August.

Risk of less rain due to El Nino

According to Skymet, less than normal rainfall is expected in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. According to Skymet MD Jatin Singh, the possibility of El Nino is increasing. Monsoon may weaken due to the effect of El Nino. However, this is not good news for India in terms of food prices. The effect of weak monsoon can be seen on the sowing of Kharif crops. The biggest impact of deficient monsoon can be on the cultivation of paddy, the most important kharif crop.

Blow to the campaign to control inflation!

Announcing the monetary policy, RBI has estimated the inflation rate to be 5.20 percent in 2023-24, which has been 6.44 percent in February 2023. RBI is hopeful that inflation may come down in the coming days. But according to the forecast of Skymet, if the monsoon is weak, then the RBI’s efforts to deal with inflation may suffer a setback. On April 12, 2023, the retail inflation data for March 2023 will be announced. At the same time, the Meteorological Department will also issue its estimates regarding the monsoon in the coming days.

effect of el nino on monsoon

Skymet has predicted a weak monsoon. Many other research reports believe that this year, due to the effect of El Nino, drought-like conditions may arise, due to which the production of food grains may decrease. Recently, MOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), an organization associated with America, has predicted the arrival of El Nino between June and December 2023. This can affect the monsoon in India. Whenever there has been drought in the last 20 years, it has happened only because of El Nino. Due to El Nino, there may be drought in the country due to which there may be pressure on the supply of food items. And this can have an impact on the prices of food items. Food items can be expensive.

temperature may increase due to el nino

In the Monthly Economic Review report released by the Ministry of Finance for the month of January, it was also said that agencies providing information related to weather have predicted that conditions like El Nino can be seen in India. If this prediction turns out to be true, its effect can be seen on the monsoon. El Nino and La Nina are periodic changes in the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean, the effect of which is seen on the weather. Due to El Nino, the temperature gets warmer and La Nina gets colder. Due to El Nino, the temperature rises in the summer season and drought-like conditions arise. Due to its effect, changes are seen in the areas that get rain. More rain has been seen in places with less rainfall.

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