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President-elect Mohamed Muizzu of Maldives may have won the Presidential elections in Maldives, but in reality he can do little considering India’s unprecedented inroads in the Indian Ocean archipelago with mega infra and connectivity projects. ( Image Source : PTI and X )
Riding on the infamous ‘India Out’ campaign and cleverly exploiting the anti-Indian military sentiments, Mohamed Muizzu has come to power as the new President of Maldives, defeating incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. The outgoing president had unabashedly followed an ‘India First’ foreign and strategic policy throughout his tenure that began in 2018 even as his own party ran into a plethora of problems owing to a major split that saw the party’s kingpin Mohamed Nasheed deserting him. However, President-elect Muizzu’s tenure will not be similar to that of his mentor – Abdulla Yameen – former pro-China President of Maldives.
New Delhi had literally severed all ties with Malé during Yameen’s tenure that continued from 2013 till 2018 when his China-backed government cancelled a $511 million deal with GMR Infrastructure while Beijing lapped up large-scale infrastructure projects and brought the Indian Ocean nation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), much to India’s discontent. China, which opened its embassy there only in 2011, was able to rapidly penetrate into that country with sharp strategic planning.
Despite a rough relationship with India under Yameen, both countries continued joint patrols in the island’s exclusive economic zone. Historically, India has been providing helicopters, patrolling boats and surveillance aircraft to the island nations of Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles in order to have a sustained strategic influence in the maritime domain, where China is also growing aggressive day by day.
Meanwhile, since winning the Presidential elections in a landslide victory on September 30, Muizzu has already ensured that Yameen, serving a 11-year jail sentence, be shifted to his home where he will remain in house arrest as opposed to staying in prison. Yameen was also barred from running for the elections but he ensured that he fielded Muizzu, the mayor of Malé. Keeping his commitment, the 45-year-old British-educated civil engineer has also said he has asked all foreign military forces to exit that country, signalling New Delhi.
Maldives Will Have To Follow Sri Lanka’s Stance
Solih, who was following an ‘India First’ policy, ensured that New Delhi grants Maldives whatever it wants on a quid pro quo basis. Under Solih, New Delhi’s financial assistance to Malé reached a staggering $2 billion, with the Modi government rolling out a $500 million package that included a grant of $100 million and a $400 million line of credit.
Under Yameen, Maldives gathered Chinese debt to the tune of $2 billion. So Muizzu will not commit the same mistakes as Yameen and tread cautiously. Meanwhile, India is also involved in some of the big-ticket infrastructure projects, especially the ‘Greater Malé Connectivity Project’ (GMCP), touted to be the largest civilian infrastructure project in Maldives, connecting Male with three neighbouring islands — Villingili, Gulhifahu (where a port is being built under Indian LoC) and Thilafushi (new industrial zone) — by construction of a bridge-and-causeway link spanning 6.7 km.
Under defence and security partnership, India also provides training to the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF). Apart from two Dornier aircraft, India has also given Maldives two Advance Light Helicopters.
Therefore, it will be an onerous task for Muizzu to upend all that is underway. Hence, his tenure will see Maldives finally learning the fine act of balancing between India and China – something that neighbouring Sri Lanka has practising for decades. His will not be an easy run like Yameen wherein he can completely steer the island nation towards Beijing even if he wants to. He has no other option but to continue engaging with both the influential neighbours.
No wonder why in a recent interview to a local media outlet, Muizzu said he would like India to carry out the projects as is but to finish those smoothly and in time provided New Delhi sends workers to complete them and not “soldiers” even if they wear uniform. Meanwhile, India’s Ambassador to Maldives Munu Mahawar called on the President-elect and assured India’s principles on territorial sovereignty and integrity.
Both sides also discussed “further enhancing” bilateral relations, according to a statement by the Progressive Party of Maldives.
It will be unfair to say that Muizzu won the elections this time only by fanning anti-India sentiments. In fact, it was Solih’s weakening position that was responsible for the opponent’s win. The most critical setback for Solih was Nasheed’s exit from the party while he also took away many key party members with him. While India continued to support Solih till the end, Nasheed’s exit did cause a lot of stir in the country. The former president may also like to become active in the political life there even as he had started the process of amending the Maldivian Constitution to change the country’s system of government from a presidential to a parliamentary system.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first leader to congratulate Muizzu on his victory. It is learnt that Muizzu may undertake his first foreign trip to India. “India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region,” Modi said on X.
Therefore, challenges are plenty in front of Muizzu, who will take charge on November 17. The world has undergone a sea change since Yameen’s time and he needs to prepare well. In dealing with India, Muizzu will also be watched by New Delhi’s international partners now, especially, the U.S., Japan and Australia who have made Indo-Pacific strategic construct a key cornerstone in their respective foreign and security policies. In fact, it was due to the growing closeness between India and Maldives that Australia opened its Embassy there in May 2023, followed by the United States in September.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]
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