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Several regions were affected by devastating floods from late August to early September. Libya, Greece, Türkiye, Bulgaria, Brazil, Spain, China, and the United States are among 10 different regions hit by storms in a short period of time this year. The storms occurred due to heavy rainfall in these regions, which is believed to have been triggered by the warming of oceans and human-induced climate change. Some storms may have been enhanced due to increased precipitation occurring as a result of global warming.
Libya was struck by Africa’s deadliest storm ever on September 10, 2023. Storm Daniel triggered torrential rains and flash floods, resulting in over 4,000 deaths as of September 20. Over 10,000 people are missing, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. Water from burst dams flooded the city of Derna, because of which more people are feared dead.
On September 10, Storm Daniel reached a peak in northeastern Libya, resulting in strong winds with speeds 70 to 80 kilometres per hour, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, citing Libya’s National Meteorological Centre.
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From September 10 to 11, Al-Bayda recorded its highest daily rainfall rate of 414.1 millimetres.
Storm Daniel has affected other regions of the central and eastern Mediterranean, which include Greece, Türkiye, and Bulgaria. The storm not only caused devastating deluge, but also resulted in massive loss of life.
More such extreme rainfall events are expected to occur in the future because the planet is warming due to climate change.
Quoting Stefan Uhlenbrook, Director of Hydrology and Cryosphere at WMO, the UN agency said a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, as a result of which precipitation events such as rain, snow or hail become more intense. As the intensity of these precipitation events increases in a warmer climate, the chances of flooding rise.
Since over 80 per cent of the moisture in clouds originates from the ocean, an increasingly warmer ocean fuels storms to a great extent. The contribution of the ocean to the formation of the moisture in clouds is much greater than the contribution of tropical cyclones.
When sea surface temperatures rise above 26 degrees Celsius, they fuel and enhance storms. Sea surface temperatures were above 27.5 degrees Celsius near the coast of Libya in early September. This increased the energy available for convection and moisture.
Storm Daniel was formed in Greece. The Hellenic National Meteorological Service named the storm.
Storm Daniel developed the characteristics of a Medicane, or MEDIterranean hurriCANE, as it moved from Greece towards Libya.
A Medicane is a hybrid phenomenon which has characteristics of a tropical cyclone, and also a mid-latitude storm, a low pressure system forming in Earth’s mid-latitudes.
From September 5 to 6, Storm Daniel resulted in record-breaking rainfall in Greece. A station in the village of Zagora recorded 750 millimetres of rainfall in 24 hours, which is equivalent to 18 months of rainfall. Thelassy in central Greece received 400 to 600 millimetres of rainfall in 24 hours. Since Thelassy is the agricultural heartland of Greece, the impacts of the floods on the agriculture and economy will be devastating. The storm resulted in a large number of casualties in Greece.
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Not only was Greece affected by the floods, but also witnessed Europe’s biggest ever wildfire. Northeastern Greece was severely impacted by these wildfires.
In the first week of September, an extratropical cyclone, which is a storm system formed in middle or high latitudes, in regions of large horizontal temperature variations, struck the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul. This resulted in heavy rains and floods, leading to over 30 deaths. From September 1 to 5, several regions in Rio Grande do Sul recorded about 250 to 300 millimetres of rainfall. This was Brazil’s worst-ever weather disaster, the governor of Rio Grande do Sul said, according to media reports.
A slow-moving storm system, officially called an upper-level isolated depression (DANA), affected Spain in early September 2023. It is called Storm Dana. Due to this storm, a red alert was issued in Madrid and Toledo.
According to the European Union’s (EU’s) Copernicus service, Storm Dana resulted in two deaths in Huesca.
Flash floods occurred across the northeastern and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States from September 11 to September 13, due to thunderstorms that affected low-pressure areas. Eastern New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts are some of the affected regions.
Saola, the ninth typhoon of the year, made landfall in Guangdong Province, China, in September. Saola resulted in strong winds and heavy rainfall in many cities in southern China, according to CGTN, a Chinese state media network. Haikui, the eleventh typhoon of the Pacific typhoon season this year, affected China’s eastern coastal regions.
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How the storms and floods that affected 10 different regions in a short period of time are related to climate change
In order to understand how the development of these storms and the subsequent floods are related to climate change, ABP Live spoke to Dr Gautam Menon, Professor of Physics and Biology, Ashoka University, Haryana.
Global warming is linked to increased precipitation. This is because evaporation from the ocean and other water bodies increases as the planet warms, and the ability of the atmosphere to hold moisture also increases as temperature rises. These factors result in increased precipitation.
“As the planet warms, there is increased evaporation from oceans and water bodies. Also, the ability of the atmosphere to hold water vapour increases with temperature. Both these mean that when it rains, far more water is released as precipitation,” said Dr Menon.
Storm Daniel and its correlation with climate change
Unusually high temperatures over Greece resulted in the formation of a hurricane that eventually developed into Storm Daniel. As the hurricane moved across the Mediterranean towards North Africa, its strength increased.
“Storm Daniel was a hurricane that was initially formed due to unusually high temperatures over Greece. This hurricane drifted across the Mediterranean towards North Africa, increasing in strength. The strength of such hurricanes is expected to increase with global warming,” Dr Menon explained.
Greece witnessed devastating wildfires because the country had an unusually warm summer this year. Not only did the heat result in wildfires, but also a hurricane close to its coast. It is this hurricane that eventually became Storm Daniel.
“Greece saw an unusually warm summer, with a number of wildfires. This heat, as explained above, led to a hurricane forming close to its coast that led to extreme rainfall over Greece, Türkiye and Bulgaria before moving on towards North Africa, where it rained very heavily over Libya causing dams to burst, killing many people,” Dr Menon said.
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Libya was struck by Africa’s deadliest storm ever due to human-induced climate change. Storm Daniel was a once in 300 to 600 years event.
“The World Weather Attribution group found that human-induced climate change made heavy rainfall in north-eastern Libya up to 50 times more likely to occur than it would have been in a world not experiencing human-caused climate change. Researchers calculated that the storm was a once in 300- to 600-year event, an intensification that likely came from an increase in sea surface temperatures,” said Dr Menon.
Why an extratropical cyclone hit Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul
Climate change is also responsible for the extratropical cyclone that hit Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul.
“A cyclone led to extensive rainfall, leading to floods in the Grande do Sul region of Brazil. Such extreme rainfall can be understood as a result of climate change which is believed to result in more extreme events, whether of heat or rain,” Dr Menon explained.
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Storm Dana and its effect on Spain
DANA, which is an upper-level isolated depression, is a slow-moving storm system. It resulted in heavy rains in Spain. However, this may not have necessarily been induced by climate change.
“The heavy rains that Spain saw were the result of a slow-moving storm system, known officially as an upper-level isolated depression (DANA). In general the numbers and strengths of extreme events, such as powerful storms or unprecedented rainfall are believed to result from climate change, although this need not be the only explanation for specific events,” said Dr Menon.
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Floods in the US may have occurred due to heating of the Earth
Since the Earth is heating up as a result of climate change, excessive rainfall may have occurred in the US, leading to severe floods.
“There need not be any direct connection and it is hard to argue for strict causality. However, on general grounds, the planet’s warming is believed to lead to more extreme events, such as excessive rainfall causing flooding,” Dr Menon explained.
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Were Saola and Haikui formed due to the impacts of climate change?
Saola and Haikui were formed over the northwest Pacific Ocean and South China Sea. According to Dr Menon, the strength of these storms is believed to have been increased by global warming and other impacts of climate change.
Therefore, as Dr Menon has explained, a warmer ocean results in increased evaporation, which in turn increases the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, leading to heavy rains.
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Hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and will end on November 30, is a hyperactive one. A hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season is one in which there are more and stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, Dr Menon said. Since the Atlantic hurricane season this year is hyperactive, the hurricanes are expected to be stronger and more destructive. All of this is a consequence of climate change, and can result in torrential rains and heavy floods.
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