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November 2022 to October 2023 is the hottest 12-month period on record. Human-induced climate change is responsible for this. During these 12 months, the average global temperature was 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to a report published by Climate Trends, a research-based initiative focusing on climate change. As many as 175 countries, 154 states and provinces, and 920 major cities were analysed as part of this research.
The El Niño phenomenon, which developed by early June this year, has only started to increase temperatures, and most of its effects are likely to be felt next year. In order to curb this warming trend, it is important to reduce carbon pollution, the report said.
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During those 12 months, 90 per cent of the world’s population (7.3 billion people) witnessed at least 10 days of temperatures very strongly affected by climate change, and 73 per cent (5.8 billion people) saw more than a month’s worth of these temperatures. During these days, the Climate Shift Index (CSI) was three or higher. This is Climate Central’s system to quantify the local influence of climate change on daily temperatures across the world. CSI is calculated based on the ratio of the local frequency of a particular daily temperature in the current climate to the estimated frequency of that temperature in a world devoid of anthropogenic activity-induced climate change.
When CSI is 3, it means that climate change has made the condition at least three times more likely. The effect is “very strong”. When CSI is greater than 3, the effect could be extreme (4) or exceptional (5).
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According to the report, one in four people (1.9 billion people in the world) witnessed a five-day heat wave that was strongly influenced by carbon pollution. The CSI during these days was 2 or higher, which means that anthropogenic activities made those temperatures at least two times more likely than what would have been the scenario had there been no climate change.
During the 12-month period, intense heat waves occurred in India, Europe, China, and the United States.
During the second half of the year, which is from May to October 2023, all the G20 countries except Germany, Russia, Canada, and Argentina experienced increased CSI levels.
What was the condition in India like during the 12-month period?
During those 12 months, the mean CSI in India was 1. This means that the effect of climate change was “moderate”, and human-induced climate change made the conditions at least 1.5 times more likely.
As many as 1.2 billion people in India, who account for 86 per cent of the population, experienced over 30 days with CSI levels of 3 or more.
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Of all the Indian states, Kerala had the highest CSI (3.6), and Uttarakhand the lowest (1).
Heat wages that approached the human survivability threshold claimed at least 264 lives in India.
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